Overview
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots’ one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn’t yield the best outcome every time. There’s always an element of luck that you can’t control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it’s difficult to say “I’m not sure” in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don’t always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don’t always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don’t, you’ll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You’ll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
Why We Like It
About the Author
Annie Duke is a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the winner of the 2004 Tournament of Champions and the only woman to win the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. Now, as a professional speaker and decision strategist, she merges her poker expertise with her cognitive psychology graduate work at UPenn. She is a founder of How I Decide, a non-profit that creates curricula and tools to improve decision making and critical thinking skills for under-served middle schoolers.
Reviews
Retail Associate
What they do / responsibilities
- Engaging w customers
- Helping with product info
- Promotions
- Making suggestions
- Answering questions
- Working to close sales
- Greeting them when they come in and out
- Working register and taking payments
- Cleaning the store throughout the day
- Wiping down the shelves
- Looking at product and making sure it’s displayed correctly
- Wiping down mugs
- Sweeping the floor
- Sweeping or shoveling the outside walkway & entrance
- Keeping the door window clean
- Wiping down checkout area
- Straightening the checkout area
- Bathroom – due a walkthrough
- Make sure there’s TP, PT and soap
- Wiping down the countertop if it’s dirty
- Cleaning checklist after closing
- Official shift is 30 minute after close
- They can clock out early if they’re done
- Restocking the displays throughout the day
- Prepping for opening
- Bag already set from the closing
- The till is set w amount in the morning
- Check it, count it, put it in till
- End of shift
- Print out report
- Take out cash & put it in closing bag
- Prepare the opening bag from the till
- If it’s not there, they take it from extra bag
- Pay
- $9.50/hr for retail associates
Contract
- Hourly wage
- Standards
- Hours
- Show up 15 minutes early
- Clock out 30 minutes after
Bookkeeper
What they do / responsibilities
- Paying bills
- Internet, electric, etc
- Does payroll
- Does quarterly reports
- Files tax forms
- Monthly reports P/L
Issues
- Shannon gets super annoyed
- She’s not very punctual
- There’s no real structure around when she comes and goes
Brand Ambassador
What they do / responsibilities
- Social media ambassadors
- College Athletes or Influencers
- Post 4-6 times a month
- Have to have Insta and FB (Tik-Tok encouraged)
- Wants them to post on Social wearing the gear
- Send traffic to website
- Discount codes
- Compensation
- Free gear
- 4 hats, a couple hoodies and a couple t-shirts
- Percentage of online sales
- Bonuses for certain benchmarks
- Incentives
- Once they hit x impressions / sales from referrals, then they get their own line
Event Associate
What they do / responsibilities
- Setup Display
- Check in inventory
- Manage the till
- Break down the till
- Customer service and sales from retail store
- Check inventory at the store when you’re back at the shop
- Making sure the area is clean of garbage during the day
- Clean up the booth afterwards
- No boxes, garbage, empty stuff, etc…
Example event: Brewfest
- They pay $15o-$350 for a spot
- Take everything out of vehicle and set everything up
- POS is mobile
Store Manager
What they do / responsibilities
- Train retail associates
- Shannon will provide checklist
- Oversee retail associates
- Making sure opening and closing checklists are being done
- Cleaning is being done properly
- Retail Associate duties
- Order supplies
- Bathroom
- Shipping
- Office Supplies
- Keep track of inventory in the store
- Letting Shannon know when inventory is low in certain categories
- Shannon will define what “low” is
- Getting the mail for the store
- Drop off outgoing mail
- Picking up incoming mail
- Shipping online orders as they come in
- Shannon emails the order
- She gathers the items
- Boxes them up
- Prints and attaches label
- Brings it to the post office
- Pays for it to be shipped
- Texts Shannon that it’s been shipped w receipt and tracking number
Payment: $16/hr
“A big favorite among investors these days.” –The New York Times
“A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital… Recommend for people operating in the real world.” –Marc Andreessen
“Outstanding.” –Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
“Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work.” –Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge
“An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life.” –Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting
“Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life’s decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings–and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it.” –Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game and Mastermind
“The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing.” –Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing
“Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line.” –Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better
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Annie Duke
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Author
Annie Duke
Tags
Overview
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots’ one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn’t yield the best outcome every time. There’s always an element of luck that you can’t control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it’s difficult to say “I’m not sure” in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don’t always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don’t always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don’t, you’ll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You’ll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
Why We Like It
About the Author
Annie Duke is a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the winner of the 2004 Tournament of Champions and the only woman to win the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. Now, as a professional speaker and decision strategist, she merges her poker expertise with her cognitive psychology graduate work at UPenn. She is a founder of How I Decide, a non-profit that creates curricula and tools to improve decision making and critical thinking skills for under-served middle schoolers.
Reviews
Retail Associate
What they do / responsibilities
- Engaging w customers
- Helping with product info
- Promotions
- Making suggestions
- Answering questions
- Working to close sales
- Greeting them when they come in and out
- Working register and taking payments
- Cleaning the store throughout the day
- Wiping down the shelves
- Looking at product and making sure it’s displayed correctly
- Wiping down mugs
- Sweeping the floor
- Sweeping or shoveling the outside walkway & entrance
- Keeping the door window clean
- Wiping down checkout area
- Straightening the checkout area
- Bathroom – due a walkthrough
- Make sure there’s TP, PT and soap
- Wiping down the countertop if it’s dirty
- Cleaning checklist after closing
- Official shift is 30 minute after close
- They can clock out early if they’re done
- Restocking the displays throughout the day
- Prepping for opening
- Bag already set from the closing
- The till is set w amount in the morning
- Check it, count it, put it in till
- End of shift
- Print out report
- Take out cash & put it in closing bag
- Prepare the opening bag from the till
- If it’s not there, they take it from extra bag
- Pay
- $9.50/hr for retail associates
Contract
- Hourly wage
- Standards
- Hours
- Show up 15 minutes early
- Clock out 30 minutes after
Bookkeeper
What they do / responsibilities
- Paying bills
- Internet, electric, etc
- Does payroll
- Does quarterly reports
- Files tax forms
- Monthly reports P/L
Issues
- Shannon gets super annoyed
- She’s not very punctual
- There’s no real structure around when she comes and goes
Brand Ambassador
What they do / responsibilities
- Social media ambassadors
- College Athletes or Influencers
- Post 4-6 times a month
- Have to have Insta and FB (Tik-Tok encouraged)
- Wants them to post on Social wearing the gear
- Send traffic to website
- Discount codes
- Compensation
- Free gear
- 4 hats, a couple hoodies and a couple t-shirts
- Percentage of online sales
- Bonuses for certain benchmarks
- Incentives
- Once they hit x impressions / sales from referrals, then they get their own line
Event Associate
What they do / responsibilities
- Setup Display
- Check in inventory
- Manage the till
- Break down the till
- Customer service and sales from retail store
- Check inventory at the store when you’re back at the shop
- Making sure the area is clean of garbage during the day
- Clean up the booth afterwards
- No boxes, garbage, empty stuff, etc…
Example event: Brewfest
- They pay $15o-$350 for a spot
- Take everything out of vehicle and set everything up
- POS is mobile
Store Manager
What they do / responsibilities
- Train retail associates
- Shannon will provide checklist
- Oversee retail associates
- Making sure opening and closing checklists are being done
- Cleaning is being done properly
- Retail Associate duties
- Order supplies
- Bathroom
- Shipping
- Office Supplies
- Keep track of inventory in the store
- Letting Shannon know when inventory is low in certain categories
- Shannon will define what “low” is
- Getting the mail for the store
- Drop off outgoing mail
- Picking up incoming mail
- Shipping online orders as they come in
- Shannon emails the order
- She gathers the items
- Boxes them up
- Prints and attaches label
- Brings it to the post office
- Pays for it to be shipped
- Texts Shannon that it’s been shipped w receipt and tracking number
Payment: $16/hr
“A big favorite among investors these days.” –The New York Times
“A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital… Recommend for people operating in the real world.” –Marc Andreessen
“Outstanding.” –Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
“Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work.” –Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge
“An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life.” –Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting
“Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life’s decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings–and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it.” –Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game and Mastermind
“The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing.” –Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing
“Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line.” –Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better
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